The “rock the vote” rhetoric of the past couple days is getting on my nerves. The mantra “Every vote counts” is technically true, but in practice, complete bullshit. In the last presidential race, the turnout was little over 100 million people (source). My one vote influenced the outcome by 0.0000001%. I am clearly insignificant.
This holds true even in a close election. Let’s say we have a tie in the election for mayor of NYC: 1,000,000 to 1,000,000. It’s easy to think your vote is significant; it could swing the outcome! But your vote only appears to do more because it turns on a binary, elected or not-elected. Your vote is still worth the same tiny fraction of the decision-making power. If you like, you can also consider that your tie-breaker vote would be effectively nullfied if some other shmuck had decided to show up and vote that day.
On a side note, I think certain close elections should be declared a draw. For example: the last presidential race, where the difference in the popular vote was little more than 500,000 votes (source). 500,000 votes out of 100,000,000 total votes is about 0.5%. We have voting systems (punch cards, levered booths) that estimate their voting error to be about 2% (source; I low-balled it for argument’s sake). Effectively, in this fake election, we have a tie. We cannot determine a winner because the “noise” from the error rate obscures the true difference in votes-received.
So far, I have been ignoring the presidential electoral process that we actually use: the electoral college system. This system makes your vote worth even less. A civics primer: once a candidate has a simple majoirty in a state, that state’s entire electoral votes effectively go to that candidate. Say Gore beats Bush in New Jersey 1,800,000 to 1,300,000 (he did). 499,999 of those votes are wasted because all Gore needs is 1,300,001 to beat Bush. Once a majority is reached, additional votes do not continue to contribute to a candidate’s “winning-ness”.
All this analysis is essentially a reaction to a lot of the rhetoric and talk that usually floats around this time of the year. I have been wanting to get this off my chest ever since people have been bugging me to vote. I do not appreciate being bombarded with platitudes that do not stand up to my own simple-minded scrutiny.
It might be best to leave this post on a uplifting note. The question comes forward: If my vote is so worthless, what the hell is voting good for? Yes, your single vote is clearly insignificant. The key lies in that a big group of many insignificant votes adds up to one helluva significant vote. Candidates know this; they rely on big block votes to move them into office. But if the masses matter more, how can the average individual citizen affect his government?
This is the punchline. At the core of the democractic process lies open debate and discussion. You influence the world by turning to your neighbor and engaging in conversation. For example, “Do you like the way Bush has handled the world community?” When all is said and done, everyone retreats to their voting booth and takes that final step in the democractic process: the vote. If you are not actively involved in the debate and discussion, your vote rings hollow. However, if you can share your views and align 10 people to them, you have just increased your influence by an order of magnitude.
That said, with the 2004 presidential election officially looming, I hope to begin to engage my peers in a discussion about who is fit to be president and what direction we want to take this dumb country. Won’t you please join me?
# 2003 Nov 4
{opine, rompin' years}
